Research approach

How the research is done, and how to read it.

A short guide to what is observed, how timing is read, and what the evidence language means.

The lifecycle framework

The framework is a map of stages a customer may pass through, and it applies to customer lifecycles in general. It is not a measurement. Some stages apply only to some customers, and the research records a stage only where a journey reaches it. Each edition adapts the framework to its own category.

Core stages

  1. Acquisition
  2. Purchase
  3. Delivery
  4. Early use

Then, depending on the customer

  1. Repeat purchasewhere a customer buys again
  2. Subscriptionrenewal, skip, pause
  3. Cancellationif the customer cancels
  4. Lapseno observed repeat order
  5. Winbackafter a lapse or cancellation
Illustrative lifecycle framework. Branches are alternative journeys, spacing does not represent measured time, and not every customer reaches every stage.

What is recorded

  • The product bought, its delivery date where delivery is verified and, where it applies, an estimated supply period read from the label.
  • Order, delivery and subscription dates.
  • Each message or account event, with its date and source.
  • Whether a comparison inbox received the same message.

Evidence language

Every statement in a report is tied to one of three evidence states.

Observed

Seen in an inbox or account, with a date. Shown as a solid line.

Estimated

Derived from the product label or a brand’s stated terms. Shown as a dashed line.

Not observed

Not seen within the observation window. Shown as an open end.

Not observed is not the same as not sent. A message missing from a window says nothing about whether a brand sends it at another time.

Observation windows

Each finding states the window in which it was observed. Seasonal periods, such as the winter holidays, are labeled so that campaign timing is not read as ordinary lifecycle timing. A lapse means no repeat order was observed within the window. It says nothing about what happened after the window closed.

The comparison inbox

Alongside each purchasing inbox sits a matching inbox that never buys. Where the pairing is valid, it shows which messages were seen only after purchase. It does not show why a brand sent them.

Limits

  • Each edition observes one cohort in one category, not every brand.
  • A journey describes the specific product bought, not every product a brand sells.
  • The research records what was sent and when. It does not measure what any message earned.

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